Climate Articles
Distortion or Fact
The distortion continues and it is the GOP that continues to skew the facts. The latest version is that 1934 was the warmest year on record. After I did a bit of research on this claim I found a relationship between this story and an article that I had already slated for the newsletter, Anti-science groups funded by ExxonMobil hype email story. As I looked at this story I recognized the same "wording" from all of the articles. So I followed the trail and noticed that the National Center For Public Policy Research and Heartland Institute, both funded by Exxon Mobile were behind the story. Here are the facts, and 1934 is No. 9:
The last eight 5-year periods (2002-2006, 2001-2005, 2000-2004, 1999-2003, 1998-2002, 1997-2001, 1996-2000, 1995-1999), were thewarmest 5-year periods (i.e. pentads) in the last 112 years of national records, illustrating the anomalous warmth of the last decade. The 9 th warmest pentad was in the 1930s (1930-34), when the western U.S. was suffering from an extended drought coupled with anomalous warmth. The three warmest years on record are 1998, 2006 and 1934. In 1998, the record warmth was concentrated in the Northeast as compared with the Northwest during 1934. In 2006, much above average temperatures were present across most of the U.S. The West Coast and parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast were above average. No state was near or below average for 2006.
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2006 data
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1998 data
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1934 data
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1895-2006 Global Warming Graph
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...and More Info
Another argument used by the GOP has been that in the 1970's scientists were claiming that we were heading into a cooling cycle. This is a true fact and doesn't support the GOP denial. In the natural cycle that is hawked by the GOP, we should have been heading into a natural cooling cycle IF we were not influencing the climate with CO2, methane, and other pollutatnts we would be cyclically moving into a cooling era. As a matter of fact, cooling is the natural state of the earth. As they argue this point, they ignore the fact that it HAS BEEN WARMING. The GOP also can not use any scientifically researched data that can explain the major warming trend.
Jim Hansen's opinion
Several people have written saying that it would be useful to have an expert opinion on the state of the surface temperature data from someone other than RealClimate members.
You don't get more expert than Jim Hansen.
Here you go...
Kim Cobb's view
Guest Commentary: An Open Essay on "ClimateGate": Kim Cobb, Georgia Tech
Since the widespread distribution of stolen e-mails originating from the University of East Anglia, I have become increasingly distressed by the way that the internet and media machinery has digested their content. As a climate scientist, I have always been sensitive to the direction the wind is blowing on climate change, and it has become increasingly clear to me that more scientists need to add their voices to the debate. I learned early in my career that it is far better to address the issues raised by global warming skeptics head on rather than ignore their attacks and let public sentiment evolve in an information battleground that has been ceded to their arguments.
I am a collaborator, co-author, and friend of both Phil Jones and Michael Mann, the authors of the most frequently quoted e-mails from the "CRU hack". My name even appears in one of these emails to Phil Jones, regarding my involvement as an unpaid collaborator on his proposal. I don't believe my relationship to these scientists disqualifies my opinion on this matter – rather, I believe that as a paleoclimate scientist who knows the intricate details of the matters they discuss, my opinion may be of value to the general public.
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Ben Santer: Open letter to the climate science community
Dear colleagues and friends,
I am sure that by now, all of you are aware of the hacking incident which recently took place at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU). This was a criminal act. Over 3,000 emails and documents were stolen. The identity of the hacker or hackers is still unknown.
The emails represented private correspondence between CRU scientists and scientists at climate research centers around the world. Dozens of the stolen emails are from over a decade of my own personal correspondence with Professor Phil Jones, the Director of CRU.
I obtained my Ph.D. at the Climatic Research Unit. I went to CRU in 1983 because it was - and remains - one of the world's premier institutions for studying the nature and causes of climate change. During the course of my Ph.D., I was privileged to work together with exceptional scientists - with people like Tom Wigley, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, and Sarah Raper.
After completing my Ph.D. at CRU in 1987, I devoted much of my scientific career to what is now called "climate fingerprinting", which seeks to understand the causes of recent climate change. At its core, fingerprinting is a form of what people now call "data mining" - an attempt to extract information and meaning from very large, complex climate datasets. The emails stolen from the Climatic Research Unit are now being subjected to a very different form of "data mining". This mining is taking place in the blogosphere, in the editorial pages of various newspapers, and in radio and television programs. This form of mining has little to do with extracting meaning from personal email correspondence on complex scientific issues. This form of mining seeks to find dirt - to skew true meaning, to distort, to misrepresent, to take out of context. It seeks to destroy the reputations of exceptional scientists - scientists like Professor Phil Jones.
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Science forgotten in climate emails fuss
No one identifies any scientific flaws in Phil Jones's work, yet the 'fallen idol' narrative is too alluring for the media to resist Myles Allen
It is odd that we still don't take climate change seriously.
Judging from the acres of newsprint being devoted to the subject right now, you might find that remark surprising. But look at the furore over the University of East Anglia emails: environmentalists hand-wringing as if the end of the world had suddenly been brought forward; their opponents crowing that the whole of climate science has to start again from scratch.
Can you imagine this kind of response if the subject of the emails had been something we actually care about, such as health or the economy? The discovery of the HIV virus involved one of the murkiest incidents in the history of science. It's an insult to UEA's Phil Jones and his colleagues to even suggest the comparison, but it serves to make the point. Reporters on the HIV affair always scrupulously stressed that although the integrity of some of the individuals involved was called into question, the evidence that HIV causes Aids was unaffected. People might have died if the public had been misled on that point. Whereas if it's only about climate change...
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Are the CRU data "suspect"? An objective assessment.
In the wake of the CRU e-mail hack, the suggestion that scientists have been hiding the raw meteorological data that underpin global temperature records has appeared in the media. For example, New York Times science writer John Tierney wrote, "It is not unreasonable to give outsiders a look at the historical readings and the adjustments made by experts… Trying to prevent skeptics from seeing the raw data was always a questionable strategy, scientifically."
The implication is that something secretive and possibly nefarious has been afoot in the way data have been handled, and that the validity of key data products (especially those produced by CRU) is suspect on these grounds. This is simply not the case.
It may come as a surprise to some that the first compilation of world-wide meteorological data was published by the Smithsonian Institution in 1927, long before anthropogenic climate change emerged as an important issue (Clayton et al., 1927). This volume is still widely available on the library shelf as are updates that were issued periodically. This same data collection provided the foundation for the World Monthly Surface Station Climatology, 1738-cont. As has been the case for many years, any interested party can access this from UCAR
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Now, it is well known that these data are not perfect. Most records are not as complete as could be wished. Errors periodically creep in and have to be identified and weeded out. But beyond the simple errors of the key-entry type there are inevitably discontinuities or inhomogeneities introduced into the records due to changes in observing practices, station environment, or other non-meteorological factors. It is very unlikely there is any historical record in existence unaffected by this issue.
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Debunking misinformation about stolen climate emails
Some news organizations have misreported critical aspects of the stolen email story. There is no evidence scientists did anything with temperature data they weren't already doing openly in peer-reviewed papers.
There is no evidence that scientists "fudged," "manipulated" or "manufactured" data. These unsupported claims, based on taking the emails out of context, are being promoted by long-time anti-science opponents of climate change legislation. The fact that the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the University of East Anglia and Penn State University are looking into the contents of the stolen emails is not evidence that the charges against the scientists involved are true.
While the emails do raise some valid concerns about scientific integrity, they do not indicate that climate data and research have been compromised. Media stories that report they do are inaccurate. And opponents of climate change action are either lying about the emails or are ignorant of the climate science involved.
University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit Director Phil Jones wasn't "hiding" anything that wasn't already being openly discussed in scientific papers. He was using a "trick"—a technique—published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.
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Anti-science groups funded by ExxonMobil hype email story
American Enterprise Institute
Exxon Mobil Has Given The American Enterprise Institute Nearly $2 Million Since 2001. Since 2001, Exxon Mobil has donated $1,910,000 to the American Enterprise Institute. [Publicly Available IRS 990 Forms via Conservative Transparency, accessed 12/7/09]
Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow
Exxon Mobil Has Given The Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow Over $465,000 Since 2001. Since 2001, Exxon Mobil has donated $467,000 to the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow. [Publicly Available IRS 990 Forms via Conservative Transparency, accessed 12/7/09]
FreedomWorks
Exxon Mobil Gave FreedomWorks Over $275,000 In 2001. In 2001, Exxon Mobil donated $275,250 to FreedomWorks, then known as Citizens for a Sound Economy. [Publicly Available IRS 990 Forms via Conservative Transparency, accessed 12/7/09]
Heartland Institute
Exxon Mobil Has Given The Heartland Institute Over $530,000 Since 2001. Since 2001, Exxon Mobil has donated $531,500 to the Heartland Institute. [Publicly Available IRS 990 Forms via Conservative Transparency, accessed 12/7/09]
Heritage Foundation
Exxon Mobil Has Given The Heritage Foundation $385,000 Since 2001. Since 2001, Exxon Mobil has donated $385,000 to the Heritage Foundation. [Publicly Available IRS 990 Forms via Conservative Transparency, accessed 12/7/09]
National Center For Policy Analysis
Exxon Mobil Has Given The National Center For Policy Analysis $520,000 Since 2001. Since 2001, Exxon Mobil has donated $520,000 to the National Center for Policy Analysis. [Publicly Available IRS 990 Forms via Conservative Transparency, accessed 12/7/09]
National Center For Public Policy Research
Exxon Mobil Has Given The National Center For Public Policy Research $390,000 Since 2001. Since 2001, Exxon Mobil has donated $390,000 to the National Center for Public Policy Research. [Publicly Available IRS 990 Forms via Conservative Transparency, accessed 12/7/09]
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Acid oceans: the 'evil twin' of climate change
"We're having a change in water chemistry, so 20 years from now the system we're looking at could be affected dramatically but we're not really sure how. So we see a train wreck coming," said Andrew DeVogelaere, the sanctuary's research director, while out kayaking this fall with a reporter in the cold waters.
Nothing in the treaty negotiations specifically addresses the effects of carbon absorption in the oceans on marine life, which studies show is damaging key creatures' hard shells or skeletons.
Oceans absorb about 25 percent of the world's greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere from human activities each year, says a new U.N. report released at the Copenhagen talks this week. That helps slow global warming in the atmosphere, the focus of the Copenhagen talks.
But carbon dissolving in oceans also forms carbonic acid, raising waters' acidity that damages all manner of hard-shelled creatures, and setting off a chain reaction that threatens the food chain supporting marine life, including the lumbering sea mammals along the 276-mile coast of the California sanctuary and the rest of the U.S. West Coast.
By 2100, the report said, some 70 percent of cold water corals — a key refuge and feeding ground for commercially popular fish that also are food for the seals and otters — will be exposed to the harmful effects.
Ocean acidity could increase 150 percent just by mid-century, according to the report by the Secretariat of the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity.
"This dramatic increase is 100 times faster than any change in acidity experienced in the marine environment over the last 20 million years, giving little time for evolutionary adaptation within biological systems," it said.
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Understanding Ocean Climate
High-resolution computer simulations performed by scientists at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS) are helping to understand the inflow of North Atlantic water to the Arctic Ocean and how this influences ocean climate.
The summer of 2007 saw a record retreat in Arctic sea ice, and in general Arctic climate has become steadily warmer since the early 1990s. This has changed both sea ice drift and upper ocean circulation.
The warm North Atlantic water intrudes into the central Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, the deep channel between Greenland and Spitsbergen that connects the Nordic Seas to the Arctic Ocean, contributing to sea ice melting.
"We need to understand what is going on because changes in the Arctic Ocean can influence climate around the world," said Dr Yevgeny Aksenov of NOCS: "The worry is that freshwater from melting ice and increased atmospheric precipitation in the Arctic could ultimately slow the overturning circulation of the North Atlantic, with serious consequences for global climate."
The researchers used a high-resolution computer model of ocean and sea ice, taking into account the shape of the seabed, and the affects of ice melting, snow and rainfall, solar radiation, and winds. The simulations were verified using long-term measurements of ocean currents and other key climatological and oceanographical data.
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Climate's Lost Decade Now Leads to a 'Last' Decade
It dawned with the warmest winter on record in the United States. And when the sun sets this New Year's Eve, the decade of the 2000s will end as the warmest ever on global temperature charts.
Warmer still, scientists say, lies ahead.
Through 10 years of global boom and bust, of breakneck change around the planet, of terrorism, war and division, all people everywhere under that warming sun faced one threat together: the buildup of greenhouse gases, the rise in temperatures, the danger of a shifting climate, of drought, weather extremes and encroaching seas, of untold damage to the world humanity has created for itself over millennia.
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Arctic Climate Threat--Methane from Thawing Permafrost
Key Concepts
* Methane bubbling up into the atmosphere from thawing permafrost that underlies numerous Arctic lakes appears to be hastening global warming.
* New estimates indicate that by 2100 thawing permafrost could boost emissions of the potent greenhouse gas 20 to 40 percent beyond what would be produced by all natural and man-made sources.
* The only realistic way to slow the thaw is for humankind to limit climate warming by reducing our carbon dioxide emissions.
Touchdown on the gravel runway at Cherskii in remote northeastern Siberia sent the steel toe of a rubber boot into my buttocks. The shoe had sprung free from gear stuffed between me and my three colleagues packed into a tiny prop plane. This was the last leg of my research team's five-day journey from the University of Alaska Fairbanks across Russia to the Northeast Science Station in the land of a million lakes, which we were revisiting as part of our ongoing efforts to monitor a stirring giant that could greatly speed up global warming.
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Keeping It Frozen
In Alaska, a low-tech solution helps the ground stay cold enough, for now
FAIRBANKS, Alaska—While the world debates the causes of climate change and what, if anything, to do about it, Alaskans are busy dealing with its consequences.
Permafrost, the frozen ground that lies just beneath the surface in most of the state, has become less stable in many areas, thanks in part to higher average air temperatures. It has begun to thaw in the warmer months and refreeze in the winter, causing shifts that wreak havoc on the structural integrity of the pipelines, railways, roads and buildings that sit on top of it.
"If we're going to build on frozen ground, we want to keep it frozen," says Dan White, director of the Institute of Northern Engineering at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
To do that, engineers increasingly are turning to a low-tech solution: devices called thermosiphons that draw heat out of the ground. It's a solution that shows how effective even relatively simple ingenuity can be in the absence of a more comprehensive, policy-driven response to climate change. But Alaska's experience also shows the limits that such stopgap measures often run up against.
Alaska's permafrost has been degrading since 1982 amid record warm temperatures, according to a 2006 study funded by oil giant ConocoPhillips. Milder winters are keeping the permafrost in many areas from getting cold enough to stay frozen during summers that are also getting warmer. Between 1949 and 2007, average annual temperatures in Alaska rose 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit, including an increase of 6.3 degrees in the winter, according to the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
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American Meteorological Society reaffirms "that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming
AMS Headquarters has received several inquiries asking if the material made public following the hacking of e-mails and other files from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia has any impact on the AMS Statement on Climate Change, which was approved by the AMS Council in 2007 and represents the official position of the Society.
The AMS Statement on Climate Change continues to represent the position of the AMS. It was developed following a rigorous procedure that included drafting and review by experts in the field, comments by the membership, and careful review by the AMS Council prior to approval as a statement of the Society. The statement is based on a robust body of research reported in the peer-reviewed literature. As with any scientific assessment, it is likely to become outdated as the body of scientific knowledge continues to grow, and the current statement is scheduled to expire in February 2012 if it is not replaced by a new statement prior to that.
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No Slowdown of Global Warming, Agency Says
COPENHAGEN — The decade of 2000 to 2009 appears to be the warmest one in the modern record, the World Meteorological Organization reported in a new analysis on Tuesday.
The announcement is likely to be viewed as a rejoinder to a renewed challenge from skeptics to the scientific evidence for global warming, as international negotiators here seek to devise a global response to climate change.
The period from 2000 through 2009 has been "warmer than the 1990s, which were warmer than the 1980s, and so on," Michel Jarraud, the secretary general of the international weather agency, said at a news conference here.
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AAAS Reaffirms Statements on Climate Change and Integrity
The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) has reaffirmed the position of its Board of Directors and the leaders of 18 respected organizations, who concluded based on multiple lines of scientific evidence that global climate change caused by human activities is now underway, and it is a growing threat to society.
"The vast preponderance of evidence, based on years of research conducted by a wide array of different investigators at many institutions, clearly indicates that global climate change is real, it is caused largely by human activities, and the need to take action is urgent," said Alan I. Leshner, chief executive officer of AAAS and executive publisher of the journal Science.
AAAS expressed grave concerns that the illegal release of private emails stolen from the University of East Anglia should not cause policy-makers and the public to become confused about the scientific basis of global climate change. Scientific integrity demands robust, independent peer review, however, and AAAS therefore emphasized that investigations are appropriate whenever significant questions are raised regarding the transparency and rigor of the scientific method, the peer-review process, or the responsibility of individual scientists. The responsible institutions are mounting such investigations.
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56 Papers in 45 Countries Publish Joint Editorial warning
"Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security."
Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.
Today, "56 newspapers in 45 countries take the perhaps unprecedented step of speaking with one voice through a common editorial," warning of a "profound emergency," as Editor and Publisher explained. "The text was drafted by a Guardian team during more than a month of consultations with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. Like the Guardian most of the newspapers have taken the unusual step of featuring the editorial on their front page."
Here is the rest of this powerful global warning:
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Copenhagen climate summit: global warming 'caused by sun's radiation'
Global warming is caused by radiation from the sun, according to a leading scientist speaking out at an alternative "sceptics' conference" in Copenhagen.
As the world gathered in the Danish capital for the UN Climate Change Conference, more than 50 scientists, businessmen and lobby groups met to discuss the arguments against man made global warming.
Although the meeting was considerably smaller than the official gathering of 15,000 people meeting down the road, the organisers claimed it could change the course of negotiations.
Professor Henrik Svensmark, a physicist at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen, said the recent warming period was caused by solar activity.
He said the last time the world experienced such high temperatures, during the medieval warming period, the Sun and the Earth were in a similar cycle.
Professor Nils-Axel Morner, a geologist from Stockholm University, said sea level rise has also been exaggerated by the "climate alarmists" using computer models.
He said observational data from lake sediments, coast lines and trees show sea levels have remained stable.
Professor Cliff Ollier, another geologist from the University of Western Australia, also said the environmental lobby have got it wrong on ice caps. He said the melting of ice sheets is caused by geothermal activity rather than global surface temperatures.
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The lure of solar forcing
It's obvious. The sun provides 99.998% of the energy to the Earth's climate (the rest coming from geothermal heat sources). The circulation patterns of the tropical Hadley Cell, the mid latitude storm tracks the polar high and the resulting climate zones are all driven by the gradients of solar heating as a function of latitude. So of course any significant change to solar output is bound to affect the climate, it stands to reason! Since we can see that there are changes in solar activity, it's therefore just a question of finding the link. Researchers for over a century have therefore taken any climate records they can find and searched for correlations to the sunspots, the solar-cycle length, geomagnetic indices, cosmogenic isotopes or smoothed versions thereof (and there are many ways to do the smoothing, and you don't even need to confine yourself to one single method per record). At the same time, estimates of solar output in the past are extremely uncertain, and so there is a great deal of scope in blaming any unexplained phenomena on solar changes without fear of contradiction.
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The global cooling myth
Every now and again, the myth that "we shouldn't believe global warming predictions now, because in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and/or cooling" surfaces. Recently, George Will mentioned it in his column (see Will-full ignorance) and the egregious Crichton manages to say "in the 1970's all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" (see Michael Crichton's State of Confusion ). You can find it in various other places too [here, mildly here, etc]. But its not an argument used by respectable and knowledgeable skeptics, because it crumbles under analysis. That doesn't stop it repeatedly cropping up in newsgroups though.
I should clarify that I'm talking about predictions in the scientific press. There were some regrettable things published in the popular press (e.g. Newsweek; though National Geographic did better). But we're only responsible for the scientific press. If you want to look at an analysis of various papers that mention the subject, then try
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or
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Climate change played key role in B.C. sockeye stocks collapse, say scientists
VANCOUVER, B.C. - Food-poor, predator-rich ocean waters caused by climate change likely played a significant role in decimating millions of sockeye salmon in British Columbia's Fraser River ahead of what was supposed to be a bumper year, says a scientific think tank.
A group of more than 20 ocean and ecology experts gathered in Vancouver this week to discuss possible explanations for this year's salmon collapse and announced their assessment on Wednesday, saying they want to keep the issue afloat with a judicial inquiry approaching.
Last month, Prime Minister Stephen Harper appointed a B.C. Supreme Court judge to probe the collapse of the stocks, but the scientists say there's much work that can be done in the meantime.
The group recommended improved forecasting, more ocean-based marine research and a more precautionary approach to fisheries management.
"It's really important that we don't just sit back and do nothing for 18 months while the inquiry is unfolding," said Mark Angelo, chair of the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council.
The federal Fisheries Department had estimated more than 10 million sockeye would return to the Fraser River this year, but only about one tenth of that figure showed up.
That huge shortfall forced the closure of commercial fisheries along the Fraser, as well as aboriginal food fisheries for First Nations in the area.
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Fishermen Say Carbon Dioxide Having ‘Really Scary' Ocean Effect
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Jeremy Brown, a fisherman from the Pacific Northwest, is pulling things from the ocean he says are so disturbing that he came to Washington to warn U.S. lawmakers about it.
"This is not overfishing, this is something far larger," said Brown, one of 10 people who met with lawmakers and legislative aides this week on behalf of the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership, a San Francisco-based group that advises seafood producers on fishing practices.
The group said the ocean is becoming more acidic because of carbon-dioxide emissions that are damaging coral reefs, decimating populations of tiny animals at the base of the food chain and eating away at the shells of clams, mussels and oysters.
"Every so often we snag a piece of coral on the gear," Brown, of Bellingham, Washington, said in an interview. "It doesn't look healthy, the color has gone out of it. The evidence is that we have instabilities in the system, and this last year was really scary."
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Emissions 'higher than reported'
Emissions of some greenhouse gases are substantially higher than companies and countries report, say scientists.
The gases in question are much more powerful warming agents than CO2, but make a small contribution to climate change as concentrations are low.
US researchers found that levels of some of them in the air are five times more than indicated by emissions data.
They say it calls into question whether all companies receiving UN funds to curb production are in fact doing so.
However, the UN climate convention says it has no doubt these companies are doing what they say they are doing, because the monitoring system is robust.
Under the UN Kyoto Protocol, rich countries and companies can gain "carbon credits" by paying companies in the developing world to reduce emissions of these gases, most of which are used in industry.
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Climate change eroding coast at accelerating rate, scientists find
Coastal erosion isn't the only climate-related problem confronting rural communities.
Health officials now are concerned about food and water safety in northern villages as warming temperatures thaw ice cellars and melting permafrost increases the organic content in rivers, creating problems in village water treatment plants.
As for erosion, it isn't yet being tracked in a widespread, systematic way. But it appears to be accelerating in places where it is documented. A few years ago, the Beaufort Sea was cutting about 10 meters a year into the shoreline in Cape Halkett, in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. That has recently doubled to 50 meters a year in certain places.
Increased erosion is presenting problems within the petroleum reserve. Erosion has the potential to expose old oil and gas drill sites and reserve pits, where contaminants are stored.
Farther east, near the producing oil fields in the Prudhoe Bay area, production pads, pipelines and utility lines have been installed near the shoreline.
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Losing ground
The 32 atolls of Kiribati in the Pacific Ocean make up one of the lowest-lying countries in the world. It's seen as the "canary in the coalmine" for the problems climate change is about to create. REBECCA TODD visited and files this report.
Thousands of pieces of coral, bleached white by the scorching sun, are piled outside Totibure Clarence's tiny wooden hut.
She, her husband and five children regularly collect it from the reef when the tides are out, ready to patch up their sea wall for when the waves will crash in and destroy it once more.
Clarence, 45, moved to the tip of south Tarawa about a decade ago to escape the overcrowding of Kiribati's main town, Betio.
When she first arrived, there were no sea walls at this end of the atoll and no need for them.
By 2005, the family regularly had waves crashing through their makeshift home at high tide and, like many others in the area, started building a wall.
Along with the repair work, the family are painstakingly building it higher.
Sitting barefoot in a traditional open-sided wooden shelter, Clarence points out to the endless blue sea.
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Climate change worsened most years since 1980: report
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - The impacts of climate change have worsened almost every year since 1980, according to a study on Wednesday inspired by the Dow Jones stock index that distils global warming into a single number.
The new climate change index is based on world temperatures, Arctic sea ice extent in summer, and concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and sea levels, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) said.
"The climate system is changing in the direction of a warming planet," Sybil Seitzinger, executive director of the IGBP, told a news conference on the sidelines of December 7-18 talks in Copenhagen due to agree a U.N. deal to fight climate change.
She said that the idea was to give the public a snapshot of global warming to help understand the issues.
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Global Warming "Marches On"; Past Decade Hottest Known
The past decade has been the hottest on record, according to new global warming data released today at the Copenhagen climate conference by the World Meteorological Organization.
What's more, 2009 is shaping up to be the fifth warmest year since coordinated record keeping began in 1850, according to preliminary figures released by the Geneva-based UN organization. The final report, including December climate data, will be released in March 2010.
The new data, collected from land-based weather stations across the world, as well as by ships, buoys, and satellites, does not show a slowdown or reversal of the global warming trend, Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said at a press briefing.
Peter Stott, climate scientist with the Met Office, the U.K.'s national weather service, said in an interview, "The latest data shows how the underlying march of global warming goes on."
The findings fit with numerous studies supporting a long-term global warming trend.
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Big Freeze: Earth Could Plunge into Sudden Ice Age
In the film, "The Day After Tomorrow," the world gets gripped in ice within the span of just a few weeks. Now research now suggests an eerily similar event might indeed have occurred in the past.
Looking ahead to the future, there is no reason why such a freeze shouldn't happen again — and in ironic fashion it could be precipitated if ongoing changes in climate force the Greenland ice sheet to suddenly melt, scientists say.
Starting roughly 12,800 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere was gripped by a chill that lasted some 1,300 years. Known by scientists as the Younger Dryas and nicknamed the "Big Freeze," geological evidence suggests it was brought on when a vast pulse of fresh water — a greater volume than all of North America's Great Lakes combined - poured into the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.
This abrupt influx, caused when the glacial Lake Agassiz in North America burst its banks, diluted the circulation of warmer water in the North Atlantic, bringing this "conveyer belt" to a halt. Without this warming influence, evidence shows that temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere plummeted.
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Sea Level Is Rising Along U.S. Atlantic Coast
PHILADELPHIA – An international team of environmental scientists led by the University of Pennsylvania has shown that sea-level rise along the Atlantic Coast of the United States was 2 millimeters faster in the 20th century than at any time in the past 4,000 years.
Sea-level rise prior to the 20th century is attributed to coastal subsidence. Put simply, land is being lost to subsidence as the earth continues to rise in response to the removal of the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period. Using sediment cores from the U.S. Atlantic coast, researchers found significant spatial variations in land movement, with the mid-Atlantic coastlines of New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland subsiding twice as much as areas to the north and south. Coastal subsidence enhances sea-level rise, which leads to shoreline erosion and loss of wetlands and threatens coastal populations.
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Climate Projections Underestimate CO2 Impact
The climate may be 30–50 percent more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the long term than previously thought, according to a study published in Nature Geoscience yesterday.
Projections over the next hundreds of years of climate conditions, including global temperatures, may need to be adjusted to reflect this higher sensitivity.
"Climate change is affecting water supplies for cities and farms; leading to more severe droughts, hurricanes, and floods; contributing to more intense forest fires; and putting coastal communities at risk," said Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, who is on his way to the global climate change conference convening this week in Copenhagen. "This study and the ongoing work of our USGS scientists will help us continue to build more precise long-term projections and to prepare for the impacts of climate change on our world."
A team of scientists, led by the University of Bristol and including the U.S. Geological Survey, studied global temperatures 3.3 to 3 million years ago, finding that the averages were significantly higher than expected from the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the time.
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New Discoveries Could Improve Climate Projections
New discoveries about the deep ocean's temperature variability and circulation system could help improve projections of future climate conditions.
The deep ocean is affected more by surface warming than previously thought, and this understanding allows for more accurate predictions of factors such as sea level rise and ice volume changes.
High ocean surface temperatures have also been found to result in a more vigorous deep ocean circulation system. This increase results in a faster transport of large quantities of warm water, with possible impacts including reduction of sea ice extent and overall warming of the Arctic.
"The deep ocean is relatively unexplored, and we need a true understanding of its many complex processes," said U.S. Geological Survey Director Marcia McNutt. "An understanding of climate change and its impacts based on sound, objective data is a keystone to the type of long-term strategies and solutions that are being discussed now at the United Nations conference in Copenhagen."
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