Climate Articles

The best climate cartoons of 2009
December 26, 2009
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Cazenovia College Sixth Annual Symposium on Energy "The Energy Highway"
I would like to personally invite you to register for our Sixth Cazenovia Symposium on Energy. This year's speakers are all spectacular, and we will be hearing cutting edge information. Check out this program and register right away . Note that we have changed location and will have ample parking. We have kept the registration fee as low as last year, including breakfast and lunch, but I do urge you to become a patron or take out an ad in our program book so that we can continue this fabulous event.
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Understanding Ocean Climate
ScienceDaily (Dec. 13, 2009) - High-resolution computer simulations performed by scientists at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS) are helping to understand the inflow of North Atlantic water to the Arctic Ocean and how this influences ocean climate.
The summer of 2007 saw a record retreat in Arctic sea ice, and in general Arctic climate has become steadily warmer since the early 1990s. This has changed both sea ice drift and upper ocean circulation.
The warm North Atlantic water intrudes into the central Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, the deep channel between Greenland and Spitsbergen that connects the Nordic Seas to the Arctic Ocean, contributing to sea ice melting.
"We need to understand what is going on because changes in the Arctic Ocean can influence climate around the world," said Dr Yevgeny Aksenov of NOCS: "The worry is that freshwater from melting ice and increased atmospheric precipitation in the Arctic could ultimately slow the overturning circulation of the North Atlantic, with serious consequences for global climate."
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U.S. Forests and Soils Store Equivalent of 50 Years of Nation's CO2 Emissions, New Estimates Find
ScienceDaily (Dec. 11, 2009) - The first phase of a groundbreaking national assessment estimates that U.S. forests and soils could remove additional quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere as a means to mitigate climate change.
The lower 48 states in the U.S. hypothetically have the potential to store an additional 3-7 billion metric tons of carbon in forests, if agricultural lands were to be used for planting forests. This potential is equivalent to 2 to 4 years of America's current CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels.
"Carbon pollution is putting our world -- and our way of life -- in peril," said Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar in a keynote speech at the global conference on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark. "By restoring ecosystems and protecting certain areas from development, the U.S. can store more carbon in ways that enhance our stewardship of land and natural resources while reducing our contribution to global warming."
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Climate change fears may worsen depression
Deadly heat waves, home-wrecking hurricanes, neighborhood-scorching wildfires: When you stop to think about it, global warming can be downright depressing. Now, scientists are starting to validate that feeling.
According to accumulating evidence, climate change won't just trigger new cases of stress, anxiety and depression. People who already have schizophrenia and other serious psychological problems will probably suffer most in the aftermath of natural disasters and extreme weather events.
"When these events happen, people with pre-established mental illnesses often have more extreme difficulty coping than the rest of the population," said Lisa Page, a psychiatrist at King's College London. "This is an area we maybe need to think about a little more seriously."
In public health circles and even in climate talks, scientists have looked a lot at how climate change might affect physical health, by for example, spurring the spread of malaria, dengue fever and other infectious diseases.
For the most part, though, the experts have made only vague references to the link between climate change and mental health, even though evidence for such connections is starting to pile up. In a review of the published literature, Page and a colleague found a variety of examples.
After natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, for instance, studies have clearly documented a rise in post-traumatic stress disorder, major depression and other mental disorders. The same symptoms occur during infectious disease outbreaks.
In the future, climate models predict more destructive storms, more floods, more droughts and more diseases. In turn, the new study suggests, more psychological crises will follow. Heat waves - like the one that killed some 70,000 people in Europe in the summer of 2003 - will also happen more frequently, last longer and be more severe in coming years. The mentally ill will be hardest hit by these events, Page suspects, because they're more likely to live in substandard housing without air conditioning or other amenities.
Many psychotropic medications also increase the risk of dying from heat-related complications. So does substance abuse, which is common among people with mental illnesses.
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Scientists: Climate talks aim too low, even without impact of 'hugely important' methane
COPENHAGEN (AP) - The cuts in greenhouse gases offered at the 192-nation climate conference are "clearly not enough" to assure the world it will head off dangerous global warming, a key U.N.-affiliated scientist said Saturday.
Such projections, moreover, don't even account for the "potentially hugely important" threat of methane from the Arctic's thawing permafrost, other researchers said.
Midway through the two-week U.N. conference, richer nations are offering firm reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases ranging from 3-4 percent for the U.S. to 20 percent for the European Union, in terms of 2020 emission levels compared with 1990.
One authoritative independent analysis finds the aggregate cuts amount to 8-12 percent. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC), the U.N.-sponsored science network, recommends that reductions average in the 25-40-percent range to keep global temperature increases below 2 degrees C (3.6 F) above preindustrial levels and head off the worst of global warming.
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How Global Warming Could Change the Winemaking Map
Many Bordeaux winemakers are declaring 2009 the best vintage in 60 years, but Yvon Minvielle of Chateau Lagarette isn't celebrating. Like many vintners across France, Minvielle is feeling uneasy after another unusually warm summer and early grape harvest. "They say everything is going great in Bordeaux, but take a closer look," he says. Heat-stressed vines ripened at unequal rates this year, and only skillful picking spread over a full month allowed Minvielle to gather a mature crop.
Such seasonal headaches are becoming more commonplace in France, and many vintners are placing the blame on global warming. In the past 30 years, harvest dates have moved up an average of 16 days because of unusually warm growing seasons. Grapes are reaching their sugar ripeness before their aromas fully develop, alcohol levels are soaring and acid levels are dropping - forcing some winemakers to resort to chemistry in their cellars to produce a quaffable cuv�e. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the earth's temperatures could rise by as much as 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 if nothing is done to combat climate change.
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Measuring Impact of Climate Change from Space: Gravity Measurements Shed Light on Key Questions
ScienceDaily (Dec. 10, 2009) - What is the impact of climate change on the ice-covered regions of Earth? How does deglaciation affect global sea level changes?
These questions are being addressed by scientists from the Institute of Geodesy at the University of Stuttgart, Germany, and the Department of Spatial Science at the Curtin University of Technology in Perth, Australia. For this purpose, the German-Australian team has been investigating space-borne gravity measurements provided by the GRACE satellite mission.
As a result, they have found out that the Greenland glaciers shrunk continuously in the last few years; above all, they estimated the changes not to be linear in time but accelerating. On average, recent Greenland ice-mass decline caused an annual sea-level rise of about 0.5 millimetres.
For the first time ever, the GRACE satellite mission has allowed the determination of global mass variations -- such as ice melting in the polar areas -- from changes in Earth's gravitational pull. The underlying measurement principle is simple: it is based on the fact that the redistribution of masses on the Earth surface can be mapped in terms of changes of the terrestrial gravity field. Hence, scientists can measure the spatio-temporal variations of Earth's gravitational attraction on a test mass in space, namely the GRACE spacecraft. From these observations they can derive surface mass-variation patterns.
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Sunspots do not cause climate change, say scientists
Key claim of global warming sceptics debunked
Leading scientists, including a Nobel Prize-winner, have rounded on studies used by climate sceptics to show that global warming is a natural phenomenon connected with sunspots, rather than the result of the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide.
The researchers - all experts in climate or solar science - have told The Independent that the scientific evidence continually cited by sceptics to promote the idea of sunspots being the cause of global warming is deeply flawed.
Studies published in 1991 and 1998 claimed to establish a link between global temperatures and solar activity - sunspots - and continue to be cited by climate sceptics, including those who attended an "alternative" climate conference in Copenhagen last week.
However, problems with the data used to establish the correlation have been identified by other experts and the flaws are now widely accepted by the scientific community, even though the studies continue to be used to support the idea that global warming is "natural".
The issue has gained new importance in the light of opinion polls showing that nearly one in two people now believe global warming is a natural phenomenon unconnected with CO2 emissions. Public distrust of the accepted explanation of global warming has been exacerbated by emails leaked from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, which appeared to suggest that scientists were engaged in a conspiracy to suppress contrarian views.
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The Carbon Bathtub
It's simple, really: As long as we pour CO2; into the atmosphere faster than nature drains it out, the planet warms. And that extra carbon takes a long time to drain out of the tub.
A fundamental human flaw, says John Sterman, impedes action on global warming. Sterman is not talking about greed, selfishness, or some other vice. He's talking about a cognitive limitation, "an important and pervasive problem in human reasoning" that he has documented by testing graduate students at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Sterman teaches system dynamics, and he says his students, though very bright and schooled in calculus, lack an intuitive grasp of a simple, crucial system: a bathtub.
In particular, a tub with the tap running and the drain open. The water level can stand for many quantities in the modern world. The level of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere is one. A person's waistline or credit card debt-both of which have also become spreading problems of late-are two more. In all three cases, the level in the tub falls only when the drain runs faster than the tap-when you burn more calories than you eat, for instance, or pay off old charges faster than you incur new ones.
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Climate change blamed for Great Lakes decline
Canadian-U.S. study attributes discernible drop in water levels in Huron and Michigan to drier weather
The water levels of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan have been falling steadily compared with those on Lake Erie, and no one knew why.
But a major report financed by the U.S. and Canadian governments suggests an answer: The fingerprints of climate change are starting to be found in the Great Lakes, the world's largest body of fresh water, causing a discernible drop in their levels.
The report, released Tuesday, estimated that Lake Huron and Lake Michigan have fallen about a quarter metre relative to Lake Erie since the early 1960s, with 40 to 74 per cent of the reduction due to recent changes in precipitation patterns and temperatures.
The alteration in climate is "the most significant factor" in the water level drop and "could be a more substantive issue for the future on the Great Lakes," said Ted Yuzyk, Canadian co-chair of the International Upper Great Lakes Study Board, which compiled the report.
Previous studies have projected a decline in the amount of water in the Great Lakes due to climate change, but the board is the first to suggest the trend is already happening.
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Ocean science: Slowing sink?
So far, the oceans have protected us from the full force of anthropogenic climate change. The global ocean is the largest active carbon sink on Earth, and since the industrial revolution it has soaked up around one third of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. But how this fraction will change in the future is uncertain.
According to Samar Khatiwala and colleagues, the rate of increase in oceanic uptake of CO2 may have started to decline some decades ago (Nature 462, 346-349; 2009). They reconstructed the history of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations in the ocean between 1765 and 2008 by analysing the transport and storage of oceanic tracers, such as natural 14C and chlorofluorocarbons, and temperature and salinity. The researchers noted a sharp increase in the oceanic uptake rate since the 1950s, which coincided with an increase in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 levels. But from the 1990s onwards, uptake rates appear to have failed to keep pace with ever-rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
A strengthening of the Antarctic westerlies - a product of the 40-year-old regional ozone hole - could be responsible for this slowdown. Specifically, an intense atmospheric circulation around the South Pole is linked to fast oceanic overturning and the movement of carbon-rich waters to the surface. A higher carbon content in surface waters may have reduced the ocean's ability to absorb CO2.
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IEA: Energy Revolution Required to Combat Climate Change
COPENHAGEN-Revolutionizing the energy industry to achieve a target concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of no more than 450 parts per million (ppm) would require building 17 nuclear power plants a year between now and 2030; 17,000 wind turbines a year; or two hydropower dams on the scale of Three Gorges Dam in China, according to the International Energy Agency. Such an effort would require an investment of $10.5 trillion during the next 20 years but would ultimately yield savings of $8.6 trillion, the IEA estimated.
At present, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached 387 ppm and are rising fast, with some two ppm added per annum. In order to slow and ultimately halt such increases-while also accommodating economic growth, particularly in the developing world-non-carbon-emitting power sources, such as wind and nuclear, will need to be added in ever-increasing numbers. Presently, announced commitments for CO2-emission cuts from the various nations of the globe, particularly those form the developed countries grouped in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are more likely to deliver greenhouse gas concentrations of 550 ppm, says IEA executive director, Nobuo Tanaka. "This is about a 3-degree [Celsius] average temperature rise by the end of the century."
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NASA reports hottest November on record, 2009 poised to be second hottest year, Hansen predicts better than 50% chance 2010 will set new record
Fast on the heels of the hottest June to October on record, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies reports that last month was the hottest November on record, which should be no surprise to CP readers - see my November 24th post:
If November's anomaly is the same as the anomaly for the last two months, then November will tie for the hottest November in the temperature record. In fact, last month's anomaly slightly exceeded that of September and October, which isn't a big surprise since, as NOAA reported recently, "El Nino strengthened from October to November 2009."
It seems increasingly likely that 2009 will be the second hottest on record in NASA's dataset, which is superior to the Met Office/Hadley/CRU dataset (see "Why are Hadley and CRU withholding vital climate data from the public?" and Hansen essay below). The figure above, from GISS (here), which updates the temperature of 2009 through November shows 2009 just edging out 2007. As my 11/24 post also noted:
This year is currently on track to be the 5th warmest year on record, but, in fact, if the monthly temperature anomaly (compared to the 1951 to 1980 average) stays near where it has been for the last two months, then 2009 will surpass 2007 as the second hottest year on record.
Given how warm November was, December merely needs to be of average warmth (for this decade) for 2009 to be the second warmest in the temperature record.
What makes these record temps especially impressive is that we're at "the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century," according to NASA. It's just hard to stop the march of anthropogenic global warming, well, other than by reducing GHG emissions, that is.
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Leaked UN Report: Climate Pledges Too Weak to Stop Catastrophic Warming
COPENHAGEN, Denmark, December 17, 2009 (ENS) - A confidential analysis by the United Nations climate secretariat leaked to a civil society group shows that emissions reductions pledges by developed countries and some emerging economies now on the table would allow global warming to hit at least three degrees Celsius, 3^oC, above pre-industrial levels. A maximum warming of 2^oC is needed to avert catastrophic climate change, according to the widely accepted Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 scientific assessment report.
The UN analysis document, dated December 15, 2009 and headed "Confidential Very Initial Draft," provides an assessment of the pledges made by Annex I Parties to the Kyoto Protocol - those 36 countries with legally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets - and voluntary actions and policy goals announced by a number of non-Annex I Parties - as the United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen is in progress.
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Nearly Half U.S. Lakes in Fair to Poor Condition
WASHINGTON, DC, December 18, 2009 (ENS) - The condition of 56 percent of the lakes in the United States is rated as good and the remaining 44 percent are in fair or poor condition, according to a draft study released by today by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
A total of 1,028 lakes were randomly sampled during 2007 by states, tribes and EPA in a study that was the first time the EPA has used a nationally consistent approach to survey the ecological and water quality of lakes.
The survey results represent the state of nearly 50,000 natural and human-made lakes that are greater than 10 acres in area and over three feet deep.
"This survey serves as a first step in evaluating the success of efforts to protect, preserve, and restore the quality of our nation's lakes," said Peter Silva, assistant administrator for EPA's "Future surveys will be able to track changes in lake water quality over time and advance our understanding of important regional and national patterns in lake water quality," he said.
The National Lakes Assessment reveals that degraded lakeshore habitat, rated poor in 36 percent of lakes, was the most significant of the problems assessed.
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India's wettest place 'lacks water'
Once the world's wettest places, Cherrapunji is getting up to 20% less rain every year - and is suffering water shortages.
Residents say their heavenly abode in the clouds is hotter and drier than ever before - and they blame it on global warming.
Cherrapunji - or Sohra in the local Khasi language - is located in the West Khasi Hills of India's north-eastern state of Meghalaya.
"Never were there very big forests around Cherrapunji and many of those that are there are sacred to us," says Millergrace Symlieh, a senior member of Sohra Science Society.
"We never cut a branch in these sacred forests. So you cannot say this adverse weather change is our creation. We are affected by what's happening all over the world," he told the BBC.
"This hot weather and less rain here is not due to huge deforestation or massive industrialisation," says Mr Symlieh. "We only have a cement plant near here."
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Global warming hike 'may be steeper'
Global temperatures could rise substantially more because of increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than previously thought, according to a new study by US and Chinese scientists.
The researchers used a long-term model for assessing climate change, confirming a similar British study released this month that said calculations for man-made global warming may be underestimated by between 30 and 50 per cent.
The new study, published online by Nature Geoscience on Sunday, focused on a period three to five million years ago - the most recent episode of sustained global warming with geography similar to today's, a Yale University statement said.
This was in order to look at the Earth's long-term sensitivity to climate fluctuation, including in changes to continental icesheets and vegetation cover on land.
More common estimates for climate change are based on relatively rapid feedback to increases in carbon dioxide, such as changes to sea ice and atmospheric water vapour.
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